FX

Our foreign exchange research provides analysis on the G10 majors and key crosses, focusing on the fundamental drivers of currency movements. Our analysis integrated:

Central Bank Policy & Interest Rate Expectations
Government Bond Yield Dynamics & Term Structure
Macroeconomic Data Surprises & Relative Growth Outlooks
Geopolitical Risk & Capital Flows

EUR/USD Q4 OUTLOOK

Executive Summary Core thesis: We are bearish on EUR/USD, targeting a decline to 1.1450 in Q4 2025, potenঞally pushing lower to 1.1000 in Q1 2026. This contradicts the consensus view of “mildly bullish”, as we anticipate that the Fed will be unable to cut rates as aggressively as already priced due to sticky inflation. Simultaneously, we expect that the Eurozone’s economic stagnaঞon will force the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates earlier and deeper than expected. We

FX Strategy Analysts.

Positions are currently open for this role.

Jibraan Manuel Mohammed

2nd Year International Relations @ King's College London