AUD/USD Q1 - 2 2026 Trade Idea

RBA Hawks, China Stimulus, and a Copper Signal: A Recipe for Inflection

Where we are now

Figure 1. AUD/USD on the Monthly chart, from TradingView

AUD/USD remains in a multi-year compression range, between 0.63000, and 0.72000. Current price action suggests that base formation is near 0.63726.

Trade Ideas

Trade Idea 1 - For macro conviction - Set and forget trade

Initiate 50% of position now

Add rest of 50% when we retrace into 0.68113

• Stop Loss - 0.65876

• Take Profit 1 - 0.73000 (Target consensus) (Credit Agricole 2026)

• Take Profit 2 (Ambitious) - 0.76000

This is a long term macro swing trade, that could take us to Q3.

Trade Idea 2 - If price retraces - Buy Stop Strategy

Set buy stops at around - 0.68113

• Stop Loss - 0.65876

• Take Profit - 0.73000 (Target consensus) (Credit Agricole 2026)

This is a weekly trade outlook, and more short term. This gives us a 2:1 risk to reward ratio, and works perfectly, if price retraces. If a candle closes below 0.66684 (The large weekly candle), then this idea automatically fails.

For More Information

Consult our FX report below. For a more full picture, closely monitor Iron ore prices, Copper prices, and the Chinese economy.

Lumina FX - AUDUSD Q1-2 Outlook 2026.pdf

Download PDF • 1.03MB

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. The views expressed are solely those of the author. The information is based on public sources and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.